Ladies and gentlemen, I am delighted to introduce a guest blogger today, Mr Jake Goodman. I won’t say much more, as he is more than capable of blowing his own trumpet…
Thanks Rose22joh. Hello, Jake here, novelist, comic, basically I write for a living. That means I spend a lot of time tapping at my computer. Then I turn off Twitter and stare out the window. Then I write at midnight. Much to my wife’s irritation.
Rose22joh’s “about” section suggests I should add married father of two, atheist, serial philande – better stop there. Busy mind. I have albums of stamps from childhood.
I wanted to write about the EU. Are you still there?
I read a TV producer saying they often get pitches for TV series set in the EU institutions. A bit Yes Prime Minister, a drop of Alan B’Stard, six parts The Thick of It, a smidgen of Mr Bean, Erin Brockovich, Legally Blonde (thanks, wife, for that reference).
They always turn it down. The EU isn’t recognisable enough to the public to be of interest, and much of what happens is beyond satire.
But this shit is important, as they say.
It is easy to mock the EU (I hear Stephen Fry’s Professor Trefusis in my head as I write that. The Liar, page 68. “Oddly enough though I’ve never found it easy to mock anything of value. Only things that are tawdry and fatuous. Perhaps it’s just me”).
On this I disagree with the eloquent philologist. It is also easy to mock that which is poorly understood, little known and on which you can write just about anything, add the words “barmy eurocrats want YOU to” in front of it and people believe it.
The EU is an organisation that has helped stop war and foster prosperity, with no more or less corruption than other administrations, not all that tawdry and fatuous. Post 2008, the crash when the Euro’s poor planning was revealed for all to see, I come over all Trefusis. No, forget I said that, unfortunate phrasing.
The EU can be a comedian’s dream. If you add in cherman axents for spokesmen, beer drinking nationalists in every member state saying how different they are from each other and a French President having an affaire with an actress and you can see why us comics are itching to get that first script approved!
I’m digressing. Rose22joh was in Italy being an ancient Roman and asked me to come up with something so I said I would make five EU predictions.
Let me put my serious face and newsreader glasses on. The clairvoyant headscarf doesn’t suit me.
1) UKIP will win the 2014 European elections
Fish in a barrel, this one. Fourth in 2002, third in 2006, second in 2010, so maths says first in 2014.
People normally use European elections to punish the government midterm in a consequence free environment. They don’t usually vote on Europe in the European elections. I reckon they will this year, but the majority of don’t cares won’t turn out so UKIP will do well on a low turn out.
An extra prediction for you. The Lib Dems will LOSE a lot of votes but not by as much as it looks like at the moment, percentage wise. Europhiles that are not Labour activists don’t have much choice on who else to vote for and are going to want to make some sort of statement. That assumes europhiles are pragmatists and are not so depressed at the moment they cannot get out of bed.
2) UK influence in the EU will decrease after the 2014 European elections
You don’t think the EU does anything worthwhile for the UK so you send MEPs there that don’t vote. Or vote NO to everything (even if it might have been good for the UK). They don’t get any of the powerful Committee chair or rapporteur roles because that would be playing the game they don’t believe in.
Bingo! You have created a self-fulfilling prophesy. The votes in the parliament therefore don’t take the UK into account and the UK has decreased influence. No wonder rules made there seem like diktats.
You weren’t there when they were being discussed. Better places to be. Like off drinking beer alongside the other nationalists whom you have nothing at all in common with save a wish not to be making rules in Strasbourg or Brussels.
The next parliament is going to be a bit different. Not all of those fellow beer drinking nationalists are nice affable chaps who don’t mind the economy dropping off as long as the drawbridge can be pulled up. No, many of them are far right.
That means that UKIP could find itself isolated as the far right groups form a bigger group to the right of them. Or they may join it but that wouldn’t fit the nice bloke Dad’s Army image.
Also the ECR (the group the UK Conservatives are in) could vanish as the Conservative vote goes to UKIP and their partner parties either rejoin the EPP centre right group or align themselves further to the right. Without as many members in their group and isolated from the main centre right group, the UK Conservatives could have fewer committee chairs and places and rapporteur roles. So less influence.
The swing to the nationalist parties across the EU means this could therefore be the least “federalist” (in the UK sense meaning centralising) parliament ever.
Of course the rise of the extremes could mean a grand coalition of centrist parties pushing ever closer union.
Or it could mean less legislation getting through, or more nation state focused policy but with the UK voice missing. Irony, much?
3) No renegotiation will ever be enough
The problem here is that I want an elephant and a lion as pets. I don’t care that rules say I can’t keep them in my house, rules don’t matter to me when they’re not fair and I want something.
I don’t want to go to the zoo with everyone else with loads of other animals there too. I don’t care that I help fund the zoo by providing the elephant and lion and a few more animals. I don’t care that the zoo’s elephants and lions keep mine company and can breed more elephants and lions. But I want my own elephant and lion and I am not going to pay for that zoo any more.
Everyone else will still want to see them if I take them away, and they’ll still want to let me in the zoo without paying the entrance fee because I’m their best customer and come loads of times. But I can take my elephant and lion to all the other zoos everywhere and you can’t stop me. I know you regard it as a safari park and are all taking them everywhere anyway, but my elephant and lion being at what I consider a zoo stops me doing anything else with them, don’t you think?
So what good does it do me if you reckon you can get me a llama and a sheep back? I can get a herd of sheep, a spittoon of llamas. And I could feed them to my bloody lion if I had him back.
4) Labour will commit to an in/out EU referendum
Rose22joh last blogged on fairy tales.
Here is mine.
Once upon a time, a man had a nightmare. “It was awful. Labour won the 2015 election, just,and that wasn’t the worst bit. Cameron stepped down and several ran for leader, but all lost to Boris who took Cameron’s seat in the by-election. Boris was popular, witty and free from the responsibilities of government, it was left to Labour to make the case for Europe and do any renegotiating needed. The Opposition adopted the ‘better off out’ line their backbenchers loved so much and which could attract back the voters lost to UKIP in the 2014 European election and 2015 general election.
Labour was goaded by the Conservatives and the press, and with their pollsters warning that they were losing the white, working class vote to UKIP over immigration, they matched the pledge for a 2017 in/out EU referendum. But like every government of recent times, they liked to portray success in the EU as a fight against the odds, the EU system, inferior to Westminster democracy, and they just didn’t have the time or the media support for the carefully nuanced explanation of EU benefits that was needed, or to persuade the other member states of how serious this situation was. That meant the 2017 referendum was basically fought as a YES from the decimated Lib Dems, a qualified YES from business and the Labour government, and a NO from the right, some of Labour’s backbenchers and the media.
Somehow, staying in was presented as less predictable than leaving the biggest and nearest political and trade bloc to us with absolutely no idea of what this would mean for the economy or our political future.
We suddenly found ourselves outside the EU. You don’t know what you’ve got til it’s gone”.
He woke up and found it was still 2014. And there wasn’t a damn thing he could do about it.
When you look at it from the outside like a fairy tale, Labour promising a referendum as a way of winning the 2015 election, and then winning the election, is the most likely scenario for Brexit (Britain’s exiting the EU), in accordance with the law of unintended consequences.
5) Scotland makes everything even more unpredictable
Oh Scotland. We English love you really with your gorgeous scenery and distinctive culture that doesn’t find my comedy funny enough for a show at the fringe… But enough about me.
We agree with you to allocate quite a lot of money under the Barnet formula and suspect that if you were offered devo max you’d vote for that.
Business are warning they don’t think they can be based in you if you go it alone. You’ve big dreams of a resurgent economy. You’ll have new partners across the world that we stop you from having. You’ll have an international role in the organisations you want on your own terms. You’ll not only be civil with your ex partner but share with us the things you want, again on your terms, naturally.
The arguments for Scottish independence and for Brexit are basically identical.
Yet those on the right argue in favour of Scotland in the UK and against the UK in the EU.
They try to say that a vote for Scottish independence is a vote for the unpredictable. A vote to leave the EU, on the other hand, is the safe option as the EU itself is unpredictable.
It is as if the UK is the perfect size of nation state, and Westminster is the epitome of governance. The former is clearly bollocks – China and New Zealand are both valid nation states despite their population size difference. But seriously, where was this latter argument during the expenses scandal I call Duckhouse-gate?
The Scottish vote is before the general election. If it goes independent, we will need a new flag. Let’s do the Welsh dragon hugging St George and with a St Patrick’s cross sunset! Or just relabel the saltire’s blue as the sea, the white cross as the white cliffs and so no change necessary.
Losing Scotland means the UK, rather than being the EU’s largest member state by 2025 as is predicted, will be smaller than Germany and France and could lose Council votes and European Parliament seats. And therefore influence in decision making.
So Scottish independence makes the europhobe’s argument truer? It’s no joke. Maybe an independent Scotland would offer nationality to Brits that didn’t want to leave the EU, assuming the Spanish would ever let them in again.
That’s five predictions. Turns out there is a bit less humour in here than I intended. Leaving the EU suddenly seems no laughing matter.
Stuff that me and my mates take for granted is not a given, it is part of being in the EU. Everyone keeps saying its no risk, but seriously, how do they know? The question is do you trust our political class to negotiate to keep them all and not get screwed over by the French? Or insert other belligerent, jilted European here. And we’d be dealing with the rest of the world as a country of fifty, sixty million rather than 300 million.
Bloody hell. I had better make sure I am registered to vote. Oi, Rose22joh, you knew this would happen!
I’ve been Jake Goodman and you’ve made it to the end of my euroramblings. You deserve a champagne. Or a whisky. Or an ouzo. But probably not by the pint. Goodnight!